The growth rate in Tunisia is projected to be 2.7% in 2018 and 3% in 2019, according to the latest forecasts of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in its Regional Economic Prospects report released Wednesday.
The EBRD pointed out an improvement in the growth rate in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region as projected to increase from 3.7% in 2017 to around 4.4 and 4.8% in 2018 and 2019, respectively, on stronger external demand, rising investment and improved competitiveness as well as recovery in tourism on the back of efforts to stem and mitigate the impact of regional security risks.
On the other hand, the EBRD’s report is predicting average growth of 3.3% in 2018, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast last November. It expects growth of 3.2% in 2019.
The report said economic momentum remained strong but that growth might now have peaked. The 2018 and 2019 predictions represent a slowdown from 3.8 per cent in 2017, reflecting lower rates of productivity growth in advanced and emerging economies compared with levels seen before the 2008-09 crisis, as well as adverse demographic trends.
The EBRD’s Chief Economist, Sergei Guriev, said the lower productivity growth reflected the fact that most EBRD economies had exhausted the growth levers that had delivered rapid expansion until the onset of the crisis.
“In order to develop new sources of growth, these countries need to carry out structural reforms of product, capital and labour markets. They need to improve governance, promote integration into the global economy, and invest in human capital and sustainable infrastructure,” Guriev said.
The EBRD tracks economic trends in 37 economies across three continents, from Estonia to Egypt and from Morocco to Mongolia.