The research and analysis unit of the PROCONSULT Tunisia consulting firm, which is composed of eminent experts, engineers and former ministers, has just published its April 2020 report on Tunisia’s prospects after COVID. The report takes stock of the situation in Tunisia in April 2020 and tries to anticipate possible developments. It is obvious that any prospecting effort in such circumstances consists of dealing with several interdependent factors that are not controllable but also unpredictable in terms of prospects and impact. Although a lack of solidarity in the international management of this crisis has been noted, there would be no way to save humanity without global and multidimensional cooperation.
With regard to the post-crisis period, PROCONSULT Tunisia believes that the global and regional context will put more pressure on Tunisia than before, due to the concern of European countries to deal with their situations, which would probably lead them to resort to protectionist policies, the drying up of investment opportunities in Libya, given the likely continuation of the low level of oil prices and the likelihood that Algeria will face a difficult period linked to the repercussions of the collapse of oil prices on its economic situation.
In the absence of recourse to unconventional solutions to manage the pressure on the state budget and given the damage that has shaken the sectors that mobilize foreign currency, the pressure would undoubtedly extend to the balance of payments, to weigh on foreign currency reserves and the rate of the dinar against the main currencies on the foreign exchange market, especially given that the maturities of the external debt for the year 2020 represent the equivalent of 40% of these reserves.
It is also expected with the drying up of liquidity on the banking market, fuelled among other things by the extension of maturities, that the refinancing of banks would reach a spectacular level, that is to say about twice the current level to approach 20 billion dinars with the inflationary pressures that it can feed amplifying the situation of the imbalance between supply and demand of products already under tension in relation to the destabilization of the productive apparatus and the lack of control of distribution channels.